Use the exhibit to answer the question. A venture's cost dashboard shows imported fabric, local labor, shipping, and tariff changes. Text exhibit: dashboard titled 'Tote Bag Cost Drivers'. Use four cards: Imported fabric cost +12% due to exchange rate; Shipping per batch +18% due to route disruption; Tariff on fabric +5 percentage points; Local sewing labor unchanged. Add a small note: compare total effect, not one line item only. Which forecast is best supported?