Data display: Quarterly receipts and election outcome. Q1: candidate receipts $500k; audience base $2.8m year total; share from repeat donors 41%; Q2: candidate receipts $700k; audience base $2.8m year total; share from repeat donors 38%; Q3: candidate receipts $1.0m; audience base $2.8m year total; share from repeat donors 34%; Q4: candidate receipts $600k; audience base $2.8m year total; share from repeat donors 47%. Which reading would be least vulnerable to the correlation-causation error?