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Residuals, Fit, and Extrapolation
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DI.094 Residuals, Fit, and Extrapolation
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A model forecasts annual membership using data from 2019 through 2023. The residuals from 2019 through 2023 are small and random. Which use still requires caution?
A
Estimating membership for 2021, because it is inside the observed period.
B
Comparing 2019 and 2023, because a model cannot use annual data.
C
Checking the residual for 2020, because residuals cannot be computed for past data.
D
Forecasting membership for 2028, because it is several years beyond the observed time period.
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