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Causation versus Correlation
Grade Level
GRE
GRE.71 Causation versus Correlation
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Traffic calming clearly lowers vehicle speed on treated streets, but some drivers reroute to adjacent streets, and citywide crash rates remain unchanged. Which conclusion best reflects the evidence?
A
Rerouting is unrelated to causal analysis because it occurs outside treated streets.
B
Because citywide crashes did not fall, traffic calming did not change speed anywhere.
C
The intervention affected the proposed local mechanism, yet offsetting spillovers may have prevented a citywide net effect.
D
Lower speed on treated streets proves that total crashes fell even when the data show no change, across every major paragraph.
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