A policy institute reports that export sanctions reduced direct shipments of industrial equipment to a target country. A humanitarian organization documents increased purchases through neighboring states and warns that rerouting raises prices for civilian users. Customs analyst Farah Lin finds that total equipment inflows still fell, though by much less than direct-shipment data imply. The author accepts the institute's evidence of disrupted official trade, credits the humanitarian group with identifying evasion and civilian costs, and treats Lin's estimate as the best measure of the policy's net trade effect.