An energy-balance model predicted that sea-ice surfaces covered by dark melt ponds would absorb more sunlight and thin faster than nearby bright, pond-free ice. Field teams marked paired areas of the same floe and later measured greater thinning beneath the ponded areas. The proposed mechanism is an albedo feedback: dark water reflects less solar energy, so more energy enters the ice-water system and enlarges the ponds.
Which role assignment best fits the forecast, the data, and the mechanism?