is appropriate when the chance that a claim is true exceeds a threshold. Critics argue that legal proof also depends on the quality of the story connecting evidence to the alleged event; a bare statistic may exceed a threshold while explaining nothing about this defendant. Yet narrative coherence can be misleading when a vivid story outruns the evidence. A defensible approach should therefore use probability to discipline confidence and narrative to test whether the evidence forms a case-specific account, without treating either as sufficient alone. Which one of the following best describes the organization of the passage?